CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-01-22T22:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-01-22T22:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28735/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It is fairly faint in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source appears to be an M3.4 flare from AR13561 peaking at 2024-01-22T21:21Z and/or an M1.6 flare from AR13561 peaking at 2024-01-22T21:43Z. There are opening field lines visible with this close to the flaring region as seen in SDO/AIA 193. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-26T13:40Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2024 Jan 23 1552 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# ... A CME seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 22:00 UTC is associated with an M1 flare from the solar location S17W30. It is a relatively narrow CME, but is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's environment towards the second half of Jan 26. ... #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # #Lead Time: 69.05 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2024-01-23T16:37Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement